XGBoost outputs tend towards the extremes Unicorn Meta Zoo #1: Why another podcast? Announcing the arrival of Valued Associate #679: Cesar Manara 2019 Moderator Election Q&A - Questionnaire 2019 Community Moderator Election Resultsxgboost speed difference per APIXgboost predict probabilitiesWhat are the “extra nodes” in XGboost?scale_pos_weight XgboostOverfitting XGBoostXGBoost Predictions all the sameXGBoost PredictionsAre the raw probabilities obtained from XGBoost, representative of the true underlying probabilties?boosting an xgboost classifier with another xgboost classifier using different sets of featuresxgboost or lightgbm to handle Binomial problems

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XGBoost outputs tend towards the extremes



Unicorn Meta Zoo #1: Why another podcast?
Announcing the arrival of Valued Associate #679: Cesar Manara
2019 Moderator Election Q&A - Questionnaire
2019 Community Moderator Election Resultsxgboost speed difference per APIXgboost predict probabilitiesWhat are the “extra nodes” in XGboost?scale_pos_weight XgboostOverfitting XGBoostXGBoost Predictions all the sameXGBoost PredictionsAre the raw probabilities obtained from XGBoost, representative of the true underlying probabilties?boosting an xgboost classifier with another xgboost classifier using different sets of featuresxgboost or lightgbm to handle Binomial problems










4












$begingroup$


I am currently using XGBoost for risk prediction, it seems to be doing a good job in the binary classification department but the probability outputs are way off.



i.e., Changing the value of a feature in an observation by a very small amount can make the probability output jump from %50 to %99.



I barely see outputs in the 60%-80% range it's all less than %1 or 99%.



I am aware of post training calibration methods such as Platt Scaling and Logistic Correction, but I was wondering if there is anything I can tweak in the XGBoost training process.



I call XGBoost from different languages using FFI, so it would be nice if I can fix this issue without introducing other calibration libraries, e.g: changing eval metric from AUC to logloss ?










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  • $begingroup$
    Have you checked that any scaling you applied to the training set has also been applied correctly to the test set?
    $endgroup$
    – bradS
    Jun 27 '18 at 8:01















4












$begingroup$


I am currently using XGBoost for risk prediction, it seems to be doing a good job in the binary classification department but the probability outputs are way off.



i.e., Changing the value of a feature in an observation by a very small amount can make the probability output jump from %50 to %99.



I barely see outputs in the 60%-80% range it's all less than %1 or 99%.



I am aware of post training calibration methods such as Platt Scaling and Logistic Correction, but I was wondering if there is anything I can tweak in the XGBoost training process.



I call XGBoost from different languages using FFI, so it would be nice if I can fix this issue without introducing other calibration libraries, e.g: changing eval metric from AUC to logloss ?










share|improve this question











$endgroup$




bumped to the homepage by Community 50 mins ago


This question has answers that may be good or bad; the system has marked it active so that they can be reviewed.














  • $begingroup$
    Have you checked that any scaling you applied to the training set has also been applied correctly to the test set?
    $endgroup$
    – bradS
    Jun 27 '18 at 8:01













4












4








4





$begingroup$


I am currently using XGBoost for risk prediction, it seems to be doing a good job in the binary classification department but the probability outputs are way off.



i.e., Changing the value of a feature in an observation by a very small amount can make the probability output jump from %50 to %99.



I barely see outputs in the 60%-80% range it's all less than %1 or 99%.



I am aware of post training calibration methods such as Platt Scaling and Logistic Correction, but I was wondering if there is anything I can tweak in the XGBoost training process.



I call XGBoost from different languages using FFI, so it would be nice if I can fix this issue without introducing other calibration libraries, e.g: changing eval metric from AUC to logloss ?










share|improve this question











$endgroup$




I am currently using XGBoost for risk prediction, it seems to be doing a good job in the binary classification department but the probability outputs are way off.



i.e., Changing the value of a feature in an observation by a very small amount can make the probability output jump from %50 to %99.



I barely see outputs in the 60%-80% range it's all less than %1 or 99%.



I am aware of post training calibration methods such as Platt Scaling and Logistic Correction, but I was wondering if there is anything I can tweak in the XGBoost training process.



I call XGBoost from different languages using FFI, so it would be nice if I can fix this issue without introducing other calibration libraries, e.g: changing eval metric from AUC to logloss ?







machine-learning classification data-mining xgboost probability






share|improve this question















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share|improve this question




share|improve this question








edited Jan 24 '18 at 1:16









Toros91

2,0142829




2,0142829










asked Jan 24 '18 at 0:52









alwayslearningalwayslearning

212




212





bumped to the homepage by Community 50 mins ago


This question has answers that may be good or bad; the system has marked it active so that they can be reviewed.







bumped to the homepage by Community 50 mins ago


This question has answers that may be good or bad; the system has marked it active so that they can be reviewed.













  • $begingroup$
    Have you checked that any scaling you applied to the training set has also been applied correctly to the test set?
    $endgroup$
    – bradS
    Jun 27 '18 at 8:01
















  • $begingroup$
    Have you checked that any scaling you applied to the training set has also been applied correctly to the test set?
    $endgroup$
    – bradS
    Jun 27 '18 at 8:01















$begingroup$
Have you checked that any scaling you applied to the training set has also been applied correctly to the test set?
$endgroup$
– bradS
Jun 27 '18 at 8:01




$begingroup$
Have you checked that any scaling you applied to the training set has also been applied correctly to the test set?
$endgroup$
– bradS
Jun 27 '18 at 8:01










3 Answers
3






active

oldest

votes


















0












$begingroup$

Yes, check the log-loss distribution as the number of iterations increases. If it start's shooting up before your final boosting iteration then it's over-fitting.






share|improve this answer









$endgroup$




















    0












    $begingroup$

    One of the differences of using Tree based methods vs. Regression based methods is that the output is discretised so is not continuous due to the inherent nature of the process.



    Also, a benefit of boosted tree method like XGBoost is that the ensemble gives a much more continuous output compares to a single decision tree algorithm.



    However, in this case it seems you've identified the boundary value whose slight change decides one of the early branches of the tree ensemble. Hence, the sudden change.



    Although ensemble methods (and specifically XGBoost) often give higher accuracy, but a downside is they are not as easily interpretable as regression based methods.



    You should try applying more regularization and use cross-fold validation to get a better estimate of the performance.






    share|improve this answer









    $endgroup$




















      0












      $begingroup$

      First, you should be sure on that your data is large enough when working with tree-based algorithms like XGBoost and LightGBM, such sudden changes may indicate overfitting. (10,000 samples at least, rule of thumb)



      Second, how is your cardinality; if you have 3-4 features, it would be expected that a change of feature causing such an affect.



      Third, what are your selection of hyperparameters? Tree-based models are much sensitive to changes of the parameters. Be sure that you carefully implement your hyperparameter tuning.



      Lastly, when dealing with binary classification; error metrics gets really important. You can do a combination of binary log loss and binary error (XGBoost allows you to choose multiple); also be sure to implement early stopping by choosing early_stopping_rounds = N in the train method of XGBoost, where N is the selection of iterations. By that, your algorithm will stop early at a reasonable point where your loss stops to decrease, avoiding overfitting.






      share|improve this answer









      $endgroup$













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        3 Answers
        3






        active

        oldest

        votes








        3 Answers
        3






        active

        oldest

        votes









        active

        oldest

        votes






        active

        oldest

        votes









        0












        $begingroup$

        Yes, check the log-loss distribution as the number of iterations increases. If it start's shooting up before your final boosting iteration then it's over-fitting.






        share|improve this answer









        $endgroup$

















          0












          $begingroup$

          Yes, check the log-loss distribution as the number of iterations increases. If it start's shooting up before your final boosting iteration then it's over-fitting.






          share|improve this answer









          $endgroup$















            0












            0








            0





            $begingroup$

            Yes, check the log-loss distribution as the number of iterations increases. If it start's shooting up before your final boosting iteration then it's over-fitting.






            share|improve this answer









            $endgroup$



            Yes, check the log-loss distribution as the number of iterations increases. If it start's shooting up before your final boosting iteration then it's over-fitting.







            share|improve this answer












            share|improve this answer



            share|improve this answer










            answered Jan 27 '18 at 20:37









            bbennett36bbennett36

            1463




            1463





















                0












                $begingroup$

                One of the differences of using Tree based methods vs. Regression based methods is that the output is discretised so is not continuous due to the inherent nature of the process.



                Also, a benefit of boosted tree method like XGBoost is that the ensemble gives a much more continuous output compares to a single decision tree algorithm.



                However, in this case it seems you've identified the boundary value whose slight change decides one of the early branches of the tree ensemble. Hence, the sudden change.



                Although ensemble methods (and specifically XGBoost) often give higher accuracy, but a downside is they are not as easily interpretable as regression based methods.



                You should try applying more regularization and use cross-fold validation to get a better estimate of the performance.






                share|improve this answer









                $endgroup$

















                  0












                  $begingroup$

                  One of the differences of using Tree based methods vs. Regression based methods is that the output is discretised so is not continuous due to the inherent nature of the process.



                  Also, a benefit of boosted tree method like XGBoost is that the ensemble gives a much more continuous output compares to a single decision tree algorithm.



                  However, in this case it seems you've identified the boundary value whose slight change decides one of the early branches of the tree ensemble. Hence, the sudden change.



                  Although ensemble methods (and specifically XGBoost) often give higher accuracy, but a downside is they are not as easily interpretable as regression based methods.



                  You should try applying more regularization and use cross-fold validation to get a better estimate of the performance.






                  share|improve this answer









                  $endgroup$















                    0












                    0








                    0





                    $begingroup$

                    One of the differences of using Tree based methods vs. Regression based methods is that the output is discretised so is not continuous due to the inherent nature of the process.



                    Also, a benefit of boosted tree method like XGBoost is that the ensemble gives a much more continuous output compares to a single decision tree algorithm.



                    However, in this case it seems you've identified the boundary value whose slight change decides one of the early branches of the tree ensemble. Hence, the sudden change.



                    Although ensemble methods (and specifically XGBoost) often give higher accuracy, but a downside is they are not as easily interpretable as regression based methods.



                    You should try applying more regularization and use cross-fold validation to get a better estimate of the performance.






                    share|improve this answer









                    $endgroup$



                    One of the differences of using Tree based methods vs. Regression based methods is that the output is discretised so is not continuous due to the inherent nature of the process.



                    Also, a benefit of boosted tree method like XGBoost is that the ensemble gives a much more continuous output compares to a single decision tree algorithm.



                    However, in this case it seems you've identified the boundary value whose slight change decides one of the early branches of the tree ensemble. Hence, the sudden change.



                    Although ensemble methods (and specifically XGBoost) often give higher accuracy, but a downside is they are not as easily interpretable as regression based methods.



                    You should try applying more regularization and use cross-fold validation to get a better estimate of the performance.







                    share|improve this answer












                    share|improve this answer



                    share|improve this answer










                    answered Jul 27 '18 at 8:12









                    Sandeep S. SandhuSandeep S. Sandhu

                    1,687818




                    1,687818





















                        0












                        $begingroup$

                        First, you should be sure on that your data is large enough when working with tree-based algorithms like XGBoost and LightGBM, such sudden changes may indicate overfitting. (10,000 samples at least, rule of thumb)



                        Second, how is your cardinality; if you have 3-4 features, it would be expected that a change of feature causing such an affect.



                        Third, what are your selection of hyperparameters? Tree-based models are much sensitive to changes of the parameters. Be sure that you carefully implement your hyperparameter tuning.



                        Lastly, when dealing with binary classification; error metrics gets really important. You can do a combination of binary log loss and binary error (XGBoost allows you to choose multiple); also be sure to implement early stopping by choosing early_stopping_rounds = N in the train method of XGBoost, where N is the selection of iterations. By that, your algorithm will stop early at a reasonable point where your loss stops to decrease, avoiding overfitting.






                        share|improve this answer









                        $endgroup$

















                          0












                          $begingroup$

                          First, you should be sure on that your data is large enough when working with tree-based algorithms like XGBoost and LightGBM, such sudden changes may indicate overfitting. (10,000 samples at least, rule of thumb)



                          Second, how is your cardinality; if you have 3-4 features, it would be expected that a change of feature causing such an affect.



                          Third, what are your selection of hyperparameters? Tree-based models are much sensitive to changes of the parameters. Be sure that you carefully implement your hyperparameter tuning.



                          Lastly, when dealing with binary classification; error metrics gets really important. You can do a combination of binary log loss and binary error (XGBoost allows you to choose multiple); also be sure to implement early stopping by choosing early_stopping_rounds = N in the train method of XGBoost, where N is the selection of iterations. By that, your algorithm will stop early at a reasonable point where your loss stops to decrease, avoiding overfitting.






                          share|improve this answer









                          $endgroup$















                            0












                            0








                            0





                            $begingroup$

                            First, you should be sure on that your data is large enough when working with tree-based algorithms like XGBoost and LightGBM, such sudden changes may indicate overfitting. (10,000 samples at least, rule of thumb)



                            Second, how is your cardinality; if you have 3-4 features, it would be expected that a change of feature causing such an affect.



                            Third, what are your selection of hyperparameters? Tree-based models are much sensitive to changes of the parameters. Be sure that you carefully implement your hyperparameter tuning.



                            Lastly, when dealing with binary classification; error metrics gets really important. You can do a combination of binary log loss and binary error (XGBoost allows you to choose multiple); also be sure to implement early stopping by choosing early_stopping_rounds = N in the train method of XGBoost, where N is the selection of iterations. By that, your algorithm will stop early at a reasonable point where your loss stops to decrease, avoiding overfitting.






                            share|improve this answer









                            $endgroup$



                            First, you should be sure on that your data is large enough when working with tree-based algorithms like XGBoost and LightGBM, such sudden changes may indicate overfitting. (10,000 samples at least, rule of thumb)



                            Second, how is your cardinality; if you have 3-4 features, it would be expected that a change of feature causing such an affect.



                            Third, what are your selection of hyperparameters? Tree-based models are much sensitive to changes of the parameters. Be sure that you carefully implement your hyperparameter tuning.



                            Lastly, when dealing with binary classification; error metrics gets really important. You can do a combination of binary log loss and binary error (XGBoost allows you to choose multiple); also be sure to implement early stopping by choosing early_stopping_rounds = N in the train method of XGBoost, where N is the selection of iterations. By that, your algorithm will stop early at a reasonable point where your loss stops to decrease, avoiding overfitting.







                            share|improve this answer












                            share|improve this answer



                            share|improve this answer










                            answered Oct 25 '18 at 17:48









                            Ugur MULUKUgur MULUK

                            4047




                            4047



























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