XGBoost outputs tend towards the extremes Unicorn Meta Zoo #1: Why another podcast? Announcing the arrival of Valued Associate #679: Cesar Manara 2019 Moderator Election Q&A - Questionnaire 2019 Community Moderator Election Resultsxgboost speed difference per APIXgboost predict probabilitiesWhat are the “extra nodes” in XGboost?scale_pos_weight XgboostOverfitting XGBoostXGBoost Predictions all the sameXGBoost PredictionsAre the raw probabilities obtained from XGBoost, representative of the true underlying probabilties?boosting an xgboost classifier with another xgboost classifier using different sets of featuresxgboost or lightgbm to handle Binomial problems
English or Hindi translation of Vyasa Smriti
Obeylines and gappto from etoolbox
Multiple fireplaces in an apartment building?
Does Mathematica have an implementation of the Poisson binomial distribution?
Bayes factor vs P value
Co-worker works way more than he should
`microtype`: Set Minimum Width of a Space
How to find if a column is referenced in a computed column?
Retract an already submitted recommendation letter (written for an undergrad student)
Scheduling based problem
Why do real positive eigenvalues result in an unstable system? What about eigenvalues between 0 and 1? or 1?
What does **function** actually mean in music?
Can a stored procedure reference the database in which it is stored?
I preordered a game on my Xbox while on the home screen of my friend's account. Which of us owns the game?
How to not starve gigantic beasts
How do I prove this combinatorial identity
Why do games have consumables?
Drawing a german abacus as in the books of Adam Ries
Double-nominative constructions and “von”
How bug prioritization works in agile projects vs non agile
Negative Resistance
Complex numbers z=-3-4i polar form
What *exactly* is electrical current, voltage, and resistance?
Which big number is bigger?
XGBoost outputs tend towards the extremes
Unicorn Meta Zoo #1: Why another podcast?
Announcing the arrival of Valued Associate #679: Cesar Manara
2019 Moderator Election Q&A - Questionnaire
2019 Community Moderator Election Resultsxgboost speed difference per APIXgboost predict probabilitiesWhat are the “extra nodes” in XGboost?scale_pos_weight XgboostOverfitting XGBoostXGBoost Predictions all the sameXGBoost PredictionsAre the raw probabilities obtained from XGBoost, representative of the true underlying probabilties?boosting an xgboost classifier with another xgboost classifier using different sets of featuresxgboost or lightgbm to handle Binomial problems
$begingroup$
I am currently using XGBoost for risk prediction, it seems to be doing a good job in the binary classification department but the probability outputs are way off.
i.e., Changing the value of a feature in an observation by a very small amount can make the probability output jump from %50 to %99.
I barely see outputs in the 60%-80% range it's all less than %1 or 99%.
I am aware of post training calibration methods such as Platt Scaling and Logistic Correction, but I was wondering if there is anything I can tweak in the XGBoost training process.
I call XGBoost from different languages using FFI, so it would be nice if I can fix this issue without introducing other calibration libraries, e.g: changing eval metric from AUC to logloss ?
machine-learning classification data-mining xgboost probability
$endgroup$
bumped to the homepage by Community♦ 50 mins ago
This question has answers that may be good or bad; the system has marked it active so that they can be reviewed.
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I am currently using XGBoost for risk prediction, it seems to be doing a good job in the binary classification department but the probability outputs are way off.
i.e., Changing the value of a feature in an observation by a very small amount can make the probability output jump from %50 to %99.
I barely see outputs in the 60%-80% range it's all less than %1 or 99%.
I am aware of post training calibration methods such as Platt Scaling and Logistic Correction, but I was wondering if there is anything I can tweak in the XGBoost training process.
I call XGBoost from different languages using FFI, so it would be nice if I can fix this issue without introducing other calibration libraries, e.g: changing eval metric from AUC to logloss ?
machine-learning classification data-mining xgboost probability
$endgroup$
bumped to the homepage by Community♦ 50 mins ago
This question has answers that may be good or bad; the system has marked it active so that they can be reviewed.
$begingroup$
Have you checked that any scaling you applied to the training set has also been applied correctly to the test set?
$endgroup$
– bradS
Jun 27 '18 at 8:01
add a comment |
$begingroup$
I am currently using XGBoost for risk prediction, it seems to be doing a good job in the binary classification department but the probability outputs are way off.
i.e., Changing the value of a feature in an observation by a very small amount can make the probability output jump from %50 to %99.
I barely see outputs in the 60%-80% range it's all less than %1 or 99%.
I am aware of post training calibration methods such as Platt Scaling and Logistic Correction, but I was wondering if there is anything I can tweak in the XGBoost training process.
I call XGBoost from different languages using FFI, so it would be nice if I can fix this issue without introducing other calibration libraries, e.g: changing eval metric from AUC to logloss ?
machine-learning classification data-mining xgboost probability
$endgroup$
I am currently using XGBoost for risk prediction, it seems to be doing a good job in the binary classification department but the probability outputs are way off.
i.e., Changing the value of a feature in an observation by a very small amount can make the probability output jump from %50 to %99.
I barely see outputs in the 60%-80% range it's all less than %1 or 99%.
I am aware of post training calibration methods such as Platt Scaling and Logistic Correction, but I was wondering if there is anything I can tweak in the XGBoost training process.
I call XGBoost from different languages using FFI, so it would be nice if I can fix this issue without introducing other calibration libraries, e.g: changing eval metric from AUC to logloss ?
machine-learning classification data-mining xgboost probability
machine-learning classification data-mining xgboost probability
edited Jan 24 '18 at 1:16
Toros91
2,0142829
2,0142829
asked Jan 24 '18 at 0:52
alwayslearningalwayslearning
212
212
bumped to the homepage by Community♦ 50 mins ago
This question has answers that may be good or bad; the system has marked it active so that they can be reviewed.
bumped to the homepage by Community♦ 50 mins ago
This question has answers that may be good or bad; the system has marked it active so that they can be reviewed.
$begingroup$
Have you checked that any scaling you applied to the training set has also been applied correctly to the test set?
$endgroup$
– bradS
Jun 27 '18 at 8:01
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Have you checked that any scaling you applied to the training set has also been applied correctly to the test set?
$endgroup$
– bradS
Jun 27 '18 at 8:01
$begingroup$
Have you checked that any scaling you applied to the training set has also been applied correctly to the test set?
$endgroup$
– bradS
Jun 27 '18 at 8:01
$begingroup$
Have you checked that any scaling you applied to the training set has also been applied correctly to the test set?
$endgroup$
– bradS
Jun 27 '18 at 8:01
add a comment |
3 Answers
3
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
Yes, check the log-loss distribution as the number of iterations increases. If it start's shooting up before your final boosting iteration then it's over-fitting.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
One of the differences of using Tree based methods vs. Regression based methods is that the output is discretised so is not continuous due to the inherent nature of the process.
Also, a benefit of boosted tree method like XGBoost is that the ensemble gives a much more continuous output compares to a single decision tree algorithm.
However, in this case it seems you've identified the boundary value whose slight change decides one of the early branches of the tree ensemble. Hence, the sudden change.
Although ensemble methods (and specifically XGBoost) often give higher accuracy, but a downside is they are not as easily interpretable as regression based methods.
You should try applying more regularization and use cross-fold validation to get a better estimate of the performance.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
First, you should be sure on that your data is large enough when working with tree-based algorithms like XGBoost and LightGBM, such sudden changes may indicate overfitting. (10,000 samples at least, rule of thumb)
Second, how is your cardinality; if you have 3-4 features, it would be expected that a change of feature causing such an affect.
Third, what are your selection of hyperparameters? Tree-based models are much sensitive to changes of the parameters. Be sure that you carefully implement your hyperparameter tuning.
Lastly, when dealing with binary classification; error metrics gets really important. You can do a combination of binary log loss and binary error (XGBoost allows you to choose multiple); also be sure to implement early stopping by choosing early_stopping_rounds = N in the train method of XGBoost, where N is the selection of iterations. By that, your algorithm will stop early at a reasonable point where your loss stops to decrease, avoiding overfitting.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
Your Answer
StackExchange.ready(function()
var channelOptions =
tags: "".split(" "),
id: "557"
;
initTagRenderer("".split(" "), "".split(" "), channelOptions);
StackExchange.using("externalEditor", function()
// Have to fire editor after snippets, if snippets enabled
if (StackExchange.settings.snippets.snippetsEnabled)
StackExchange.using("snippets", function()
createEditor();
);
else
createEditor();
);
function createEditor()
StackExchange.prepareEditor(
heartbeatType: 'answer',
autoActivateHeartbeat: false,
convertImagesToLinks: false,
noModals: true,
showLowRepImageUploadWarning: true,
reputationToPostImages: null,
bindNavPrevention: true,
postfix: "",
imageUploader:
brandingHtml: "Powered by u003ca class="icon-imgur-white" href="https://imgur.com/"u003eu003c/au003e",
contentPolicyHtml: "User contributions licensed under u003ca href="https://creativecommons.org/licenses/by-sa/3.0/"u003ecc by-sa 3.0 with attribution requiredu003c/au003e u003ca href="https://stackoverflow.com/legal/content-policy"u003e(content policy)u003c/au003e",
allowUrls: true
,
onDemand: true,
discardSelector: ".discard-answer"
,immediatelyShowMarkdownHelp:true
);
);
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function ()
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
);
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
StackExchange.ready(
function ()
StackExchange.openid.initPostLogin('.new-post-login', 'https%3a%2f%2fdatascience.stackexchange.com%2fquestions%2f26980%2fxgboost-outputs-tend-towards-the-extremes%23new-answer', 'question_page');
);
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
3 Answers
3
active
oldest
votes
3 Answers
3
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
active
oldest
votes
$begingroup$
Yes, check the log-loss distribution as the number of iterations increases. If it start's shooting up before your final boosting iteration then it's over-fitting.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Yes, check the log-loss distribution as the number of iterations increases. If it start's shooting up before your final boosting iteration then it's over-fitting.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
Yes, check the log-loss distribution as the number of iterations increases. If it start's shooting up before your final boosting iteration then it's over-fitting.
$endgroup$
Yes, check the log-loss distribution as the number of iterations increases. If it start's shooting up before your final boosting iteration then it's over-fitting.
answered Jan 27 '18 at 20:37
bbennett36bbennett36
1463
1463
add a comment |
add a comment |
$begingroup$
One of the differences of using Tree based methods vs. Regression based methods is that the output is discretised so is not continuous due to the inherent nature of the process.
Also, a benefit of boosted tree method like XGBoost is that the ensemble gives a much more continuous output compares to a single decision tree algorithm.
However, in this case it seems you've identified the boundary value whose slight change decides one of the early branches of the tree ensemble. Hence, the sudden change.
Although ensemble methods (and specifically XGBoost) often give higher accuracy, but a downside is they are not as easily interpretable as regression based methods.
You should try applying more regularization and use cross-fold validation to get a better estimate of the performance.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
One of the differences of using Tree based methods vs. Regression based methods is that the output is discretised so is not continuous due to the inherent nature of the process.
Also, a benefit of boosted tree method like XGBoost is that the ensemble gives a much more continuous output compares to a single decision tree algorithm.
However, in this case it seems you've identified the boundary value whose slight change decides one of the early branches of the tree ensemble. Hence, the sudden change.
Although ensemble methods (and specifically XGBoost) often give higher accuracy, but a downside is they are not as easily interpretable as regression based methods.
You should try applying more regularization and use cross-fold validation to get a better estimate of the performance.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
One of the differences of using Tree based methods vs. Regression based methods is that the output is discretised so is not continuous due to the inherent nature of the process.
Also, a benefit of boosted tree method like XGBoost is that the ensemble gives a much more continuous output compares to a single decision tree algorithm.
However, in this case it seems you've identified the boundary value whose slight change decides one of the early branches of the tree ensemble. Hence, the sudden change.
Although ensemble methods (and specifically XGBoost) often give higher accuracy, but a downside is they are not as easily interpretable as regression based methods.
You should try applying more regularization and use cross-fold validation to get a better estimate of the performance.
$endgroup$
One of the differences of using Tree based methods vs. Regression based methods is that the output is discretised so is not continuous due to the inherent nature of the process.
Also, a benefit of boosted tree method like XGBoost is that the ensemble gives a much more continuous output compares to a single decision tree algorithm.
However, in this case it seems you've identified the boundary value whose slight change decides one of the early branches of the tree ensemble. Hence, the sudden change.
Although ensemble methods (and specifically XGBoost) often give higher accuracy, but a downside is they are not as easily interpretable as regression based methods.
You should try applying more regularization and use cross-fold validation to get a better estimate of the performance.
answered Jul 27 '18 at 8:12
Sandeep S. SandhuSandeep S. Sandhu
1,687818
1,687818
add a comment |
add a comment |
$begingroup$
First, you should be sure on that your data is large enough when working with tree-based algorithms like XGBoost and LightGBM, such sudden changes may indicate overfitting. (10,000 samples at least, rule of thumb)
Second, how is your cardinality; if you have 3-4 features, it would be expected that a change of feature causing such an affect.
Third, what are your selection of hyperparameters? Tree-based models are much sensitive to changes of the parameters. Be sure that you carefully implement your hyperparameter tuning.
Lastly, when dealing with binary classification; error metrics gets really important. You can do a combination of binary log loss and binary error (XGBoost allows you to choose multiple); also be sure to implement early stopping by choosing early_stopping_rounds = N in the train method of XGBoost, where N is the selection of iterations. By that, your algorithm will stop early at a reasonable point where your loss stops to decrease, avoiding overfitting.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
First, you should be sure on that your data is large enough when working with tree-based algorithms like XGBoost and LightGBM, such sudden changes may indicate overfitting. (10,000 samples at least, rule of thumb)
Second, how is your cardinality; if you have 3-4 features, it would be expected that a change of feature causing such an affect.
Third, what are your selection of hyperparameters? Tree-based models are much sensitive to changes of the parameters. Be sure that you carefully implement your hyperparameter tuning.
Lastly, when dealing with binary classification; error metrics gets really important. You can do a combination of binary log loss and binary error (XGBoost allows you to choose multiple); also be sure to implement early stopping by choosing early_stopping_rounds = N in the train method of XGBoost, where N is the selection of iterations. By that, your algorithm will stop early at a reasonable point where your loss stops to decrease, avoiding overfitting.
$endgroup$
add a comment |
$begingroup$
First, you should be sure on that your data is large enough when working with tree-based algorithms like XGBoost and LightGBM, such sudden changes may indicate overfitting. (10,000 samples at least, rule of thumb)
Second, how is your cardinality; if you have 3-4 features, it would be expected that a change of feature causing such an affect.
Third, what are your selection of hyperparameters? Tree-based models are much sensitive to changes of the parameters. Be sure that you carefully implement your hyperparameter tuning.
Lastly, when dealing with binary classification; error metrics gets really important. You can do a combination of binary log loss and binary error (XGBoost allows you to choose multiple); also be sure to implement early stopping by choosing early_stopping_rounds = N in the train method of XGBoost, where N is the selection of iterations. By that, your algorithm will stop early at a reasonable point where your loss stops to decrease, avoiding overfitting.
$endgroup$
First, you should be sure on that your data is large enough when working with tree-based algorithms like XGBoost and LightGBM, such sudden changes may indicate overfitting. (10,000 samples at least, rule of thumb)
Second, how is your cardinality; if you have 3-4 features, it would be expected that a change of feature causing such an affect.
Third, what are your selection of hyperparameters? Tree-based models are much sensitive to changes of the parameters. Be sure that you carefully implement your hyperparameter tuning.
Lastly, when dealing with binary classification; error metrics gets really important. You can do a combination of binary log loss and binary error (XGBoost allows you to choose multiple); also be sure to implement early stopping by choosing early_stopping_rounds = N in the train method of XGBoost, where N is the selection of iterations. By that, your algorithm will stop early at a reasonable point where your loss stops to decrease, avoiding overfitting.
answered Oct 25 '18 at 17:48
Ugur MULUKUgur MULUK
4047
4047
add a comment |
add a comment |
Thanks for contributing an answer to Data Science Stack Exchange!
- Please be sure to answer the question. Provide details and share your research!
But avoid …
- Asking for help, clarification, or responding to other answers.
- Making statements based on opinion; back them up with references or personal experience.
Use MathJax to format equations. MathJax reference.
To learn more, see our tips on writing great answers.
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function ()
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
);
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
StackExchange.ready(
function ()
StackExchange.openid.initPostLogin('.new-post-login', 'https%3a%2f%2fdatascience.stackexchange.com%2fquestions%2f26980%2fxgboost-outputs-tend-towards-the-extremes%23new-answer', 'question_page');
);
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function ()
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
);
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function ()
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
);
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
Sign up or log in
StackExchange.ready(function ()
StackExchange.helpers.onClickDraftSave('#login-link');
);
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Sign up using Google
Sign up using Facebook
Sign up using Email and Password
Post as a guest
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
Required, but never shown
$begingroup$
Have you checked that any scaling you applied to the training set has also been applied correctly to the test set?
$endgroup$
– bradS
Jun 27 '18 at 8:01