Why real-world output of my classifier has similar label ratio to training data?2019 Community Moderator ElectionCost sensitive classification with individual costintercept correction in deep learningNeural Networks: How to prepare real world data to detect low probability events?Why is my artificial neural networks almost always predicting positive elements?Neural Network: how to interpret this loss graph?A practical max-depth of LSTM layers, when trying to overfit?How do I separate Interleaved sentences using LSTM networks?LSTM: How to deal with nonstationarity when predicting a time seriesUnderstanding LSTM behaviour: Validation loss smaller than training loss throughout training for regression problemTraining multi-label classifier with unbalanced samples in KerasNetwork either overfits or underfits, but never generalizes - what to do?Remedies to CNN-LSTM overfitting on relatively small image dataset

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Why real-world output of my classifier has similar label ratio to training data?



2019 Community Moderator ElectionCost sensitive classification with individual costintercept correction in deep learningNeural Networks: How to prepare real world data to detect low probability events?Why is my artificial neural networks almost always predicting positive elements?Neural Network: how to interpret this loss graph?A practical max-depth of LSTM layers, when trying to overfit?How do I separate Interleaved sentences using LSTM networks?LSTM: How to deal with nonstationarity when predicting a time seriesUnderstanding LSTM behaviour: Validation loss smaller than training loss throughout training for regression problemTraining multi-label classifier with unbalanced samples in KerasNetwork either overfits or underfits, but never generalizes - what to do?Remedies to CNN-LSTM overfitting on relatively small image dataset










6












$begingroup$


I trained a neural network on balanced dataset, and it has good accuracy ~85%. But in real world positives appear in about 10% of the cases or less. When I test network on set with real world distribution it seems to assign more positive labels than needed tending to balanced proportion as in training set.
What can be the reason of such behavior and what should I do solve it?
I'm using Keras and combination of LSTM and CNN layers.










share|improve this question









New contributor




Bien is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.







$endgroup$











  • $begingroup$
    Would you elaborate the clause But in real world positives appear in about 10%. By positive you've meant positive labels or something?
    $endgroup$
    – Vaalizaadeh
    yesterday










  • $begingroup$
    @Vaalizaadeh, yes positive labels, so basically one category is less represented in real world.
    $endgroup$
    – Bien
    yesterday















6












$begingroup$


I trained a neural network on balanced dataset, and it has good accuracy ~85%. But in real world positives appear in about 10% of the cases or less. When I test network on set with real world distribution it seems to assign more positive labels than needed tending to balanced proportion as in training set.
What can be the reason of such behavior and what should I do solve it?
I'm using Keras and combination of LSTM and CNN layers.










share|improve this question









New contributor




Bien is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.







$endgroup$











  • $begingroup$
    Would you elaborate the clause But in real world positives appear in about 10%. By positive you've meant positive labels or something?
    $endgroup$
    – Vaalizaadeh
    yesterday










  • $begingroup$
    @Vaalizaadeh, yes positive labels, so basically one category is less represented in real world.
    $endgroup$
    – Bien
    yesterday













6












6








6


1



$begingroup$


I trained a neural network on balanced dataset, and it has good accuracy ~85%. But in real world positives appear in about 10% of the cases or less. When I test network on set with real world distribution it seems to assign more positive labels than needed tending to balanced proportion as in training set.
What can be the reason of such behavior and what should I do solve it?
I'm using Keras and combination of LSTM and CNN layers.










share|improve this question









New contributor




Bien is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.







$endgroup$




I trained a neural network on balanced dataset, and it has good accuracy ~85%. But in real world positives appear in about 10% of the cases or less. When I test network on set with real world distribution it seems to assign more positive labels than needed tending to balanced proportion as in training set.
What can be the reason of such behavior and what should I do solve it?
I'm using Keras and combination of LSTM and CNN layers.







neural-network cnn lstm training class-imbalance






share|improve this question









New contributor




Bien is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.











share|improve this question









New contributor




Bien is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
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share|improve this question




share|improve this question








edited 13 hours ago









Esmailian

2,805318




2,805318






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asked yesterday









BienBien

333




333




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Bien is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.






Bien is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.











  • $begingroup$
    Would you elaborate the clause But in real world positives appear in about 10%. By positive you've meant positive labels or something?
    $endgroup$
    – Vaalizaadeh
    yesterday










  • $begingroup$
    @Vaalizaadeh, yes positive labels, so basically one category is less represented in real world.
    $endgroup$
    – Bien
    yesterday
















  • $begingroup$
    Would you elaborate the clause But in real world positives appear in about 10%. By positive you've meant positive labels or something?
    $endgroup$
    – Vaalizaadeh
    yesterday










  • $begingroup$
    @Vaalizaadeh, yes positive labels, so basically one category is less represented in real world.
    $endgroup$
    – Bien
    yesterday















$begingroup$
Would you elaborate the clause But in real world positives appear in about 10%. By positive you've meant positive labels or something?
$endgroup$
– Vaalizaadeh
yesterday




$begingroup$
Would you elaborate the clause But in real world positives appear in about 10%. By positive you've meant positive labels or something?
$endgroup$
– Vaalizaadeh
yesterday












$begingroup$
@Vaalizaadeh, yes positive labels, so basically one category is less represented in real world.
$endgroup$
– Bien
yesterday




$begingroup$
@Vaalizaadeh, yes positive labels, so basically one category is less represented in real world.
$endgroup$
– Bien
yesterday










2 Answers
2






active

oldest

votes


















5












$begingroup$


What can be the reason of such behavior?




A classifier only tries to capture the features-label relationship as accurate as it can, it does not learn nor does it guarantee that the ratio of predicted labels to be close to the true ratio. However, if sampled classes (even balanced) are good representatives of true class regions and classifier finds good decision boundaries, the closeness of ratios will happen naturally. Therefore, the explanation is that the sampled negative class is not a good representative of its true occupied regions, meaning some regions are not sampled well, and/or classifier is finding bad decision boundaries. Here is a visual illustration (drawn by myself):



enter image description here



In the case of good training set, predictions resemble the real-world ratio (2:1), even though model is trained on a balanced set (1:1). In the case of bad training set and/or bad decision boundary, predictions are completely incompatible (1:2) with the real-world ratio (2:1).




What should I do to solve it?





  1. If the problem is related to bad negative representatives



    1. Use more negative samples in the training set, i.e. imbalanced training (you can nullify the effect of imbalanced samples with class weights), or


    2. Train with balanced classes but change the decision threshold (a post-training solution). That is, instead of assigning instances with output > 0.5 to positive class, use a harder-to-pass threshold like output > 0.8 to decrease the number of positive predictions.



  2. If the problem is related to classifier performance, we should come up with a better classifier which is an open-ended endeavor.


However, in my opinion, you should not select models based on the ratio of positive predictions. You should decide based on a metric like macro-f1 (or any other one). Therefore, by using a validation set, a model that produces more positive samples and has a higher macro-f1 should be preferred over a model that produces less positives but has a lower macro-f1.






share|improve this answer











$endgroup$








  • 2




    $begingroup$
    I like that illustration! Source?
    $endgroup$
    – Ben Reiniger
    yesterday






  • 1




    $begingroup$
    @BenReiniger Thanks Ben! I drew it by paint.
    $endgroup$
    – Esmailian
    yesterday










  • $begingroup$
    @Esmailian, I would like to say that this is something that applies to many of your illustrations. They look like something out of a write-up in a blog. You are a natural teacher :)
    $endgroup$
    – Simon Larsson
    19 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    Thanks, that is really helpful!
    $endgroup$
    – Bien
    19 hours ago










  • $begingroup$
    @SimonLarsson Thanks man!
    $endgroup$
    – Esmailian
    19 hours ago


















0












$begingroup$

Esmailian's answer is great, another possible solution is intercept correction, it is more commonly used in logistic regression, but the principal will apply here as well,
see here or here, there's a lot of material on it online...






share|improve this answer








New contributor




Oren Matar is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
Check out our Code of Conduct.






$endgroup$













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    2 Answers
    2






    active

    oldest

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    2 Answers
    2






    active

    oldest

    votes









    active

    oldest

    votes






    active

    oldest

    votes









    5












    $begingroup$


    What can be the reason of such behavior?




    A classifier only tries to capture the features-label relationship as accurate as it can, it does not learn nor does it guarantee that the ratio of predicted labels to be close to the true ratio. However, if sampled classes (even balanced) are good representatives of true class regions and classifier finds good decision boundaries, the closeness of ratios will happen naturally. Therefore, the explanation is that the sampled negative class is not a good representative of its true occupied regions, meaning some regions are not sampled well, and/or classifier is finding bad decision boundaries. Here is a visual illustration (drawn by myself):



    enter image description here



    In the case of good training set, predictions resemble the real-world ratio (2:1), even though model is trained on a balanced set (1:1). In the case of bad training set and/or bad decision boundary, predictions are completely incompatible (1:2) with the real-world ratio (2:1).




    What should I do to solve it?





    1. If the problem is related to bad negative representatives



      1. Use more negative samples in the training set, i.e. imbalanced training (you can nullify the effect of imbalanced samples with class weights), or


      2. Train with balanced classes but change the decision threshold (a post-training solution). That is, instead of assigning instances with output > 0.5 to positive class, use a harder-to-pass threshold like output > 0.8 to decrease the number of positive predictions.



    2. If the problem is related to classifier performance, we should come up with a better classifier which is an open-ended endeavor.


    However, in my opinion, you should not select models based on the ratio of positive predictions. You should decide based on a metric like macro-f1 (or any other one). Therefore, by using a validation set, a model that produces more positive samples and has a higher macro-f1 should be preferred over a model that produces less positives but has a lower macro-f1.






    share|improve this answer











    $endgroup$








    • 2




      $begingroup$
      I like that illustration! Source?
      $endgroup$
      – Ben Reiniger
      yesterday






    • 1




      $begingroup$
      @BenReiniger Thanks Ben! I drew it by paint.
      $endgroup$
      – Esmailian
      yesterday










    • $begingroup$
      @Esmailian, I would like to say that this is something that applies to many of your illustrations. They look like something out of a write-up in a blog. You are a natural teacher :)
      $endgroup$
      – Simon Larsson
      19 hours ago










    • $begingroup$
      Thanks, that is really helpful!
      $endgroup$
      – Bien
      19 hours ago










    • $begingroup$
      @SimonLarsson Thanks man!
      $endgroup$
      – Esmailian
      19 hours ago















    5












    $begingroup$


    What can be the reason of such behavior?




    A classifier only tries to capture the features-label relationship as accurate as it can, it does not learn nor does it guarantee that the ratio of predicted labels to be close to the true ratio. However, if sampled classes (even balanced) are good representatives of true class regions and classifier finds good decision boundaries, the closeness of ratios will happen naturally. Therefore, the explanation is that the sampled negative class is not a good representative of its true occupied regions, meaning some regions are not sampled well, and/or classifier is finding bad decision boundaries. Here is a visual illustration (drawn by myself):



    enter image description here



    In the case of good training set, predictions resemble the real-world ratio (2:1), even though model is trained on a balanced set (1:1). In the case of bad training set and/or bad decision boundary, predictions are completely incompatible (1:2) with the real-world ratio (2:1).




    What should I do to solve it?





    1. If the problem is related to bad negative representatives



      1. Use more negative samples in the training set, i.e. imbalanced training (you can nullify the effect of imbalanced samples with class weights), or


      2. Train with balanced classes but change the decision threshold (a post-training solution). That is, instead of assigning instances with output > 0.5 to positive class, use a harder-to-pass threshold like output > 0.8 to decrease the number of positive predictions.



    2. If the problem is related to classifier performance, we should come up with a better classifier which is an open-ended endeavor.


    However, in my opinion, you should not select models based on the ratio of positive predictions. You should decide based on a metric like macro-f1 (or any other one). Therefore, by using a validation set, a model that produces more positive samples and has a higher macro-f1 should be preferred over a model that produces less positives but has a lower macro-f1.






    share|improve this answer











    $endgroup$








    • 2




      $begingroup$
      I like that illustration! Source?
      $endgroup$
      – Ben Reiniger
      yesterday






    • 1




      $begingroup$
      @BenReiniger Thanks Ben! I drew it by paint.
      $endgroup$
      – Esmailian
      yesterday










    • $begingroup$
      @Esmailian, I would like to say that this is something that applies to many of your illustrations. They look like something out of a write-up in a blog. You are a natural teacher :)
      $endgroup$
      – Simon Larsson
      19 hours ago










    • $begingroup$
      Thanks, that is really helpful!
      $endgroup$
      – Bien
      19 hours ago










    • $begingroup$
      @SimonLarsson Thanks man!
      $endgroup$
      – Esmailian
      19 hours ago













    5












    5








    5





    $begingroup$


    What can be the reason of such behavior?




    A classifier only tries to capture the features-label relationship as accurate as it can, it does not learn nor does it guarantee that the ratio of predicted labels to be close to the true ratio. However, if sampled classes (even balanced) are good representatives of true class regions and classifier finds good decision boundaries, the closeness of ratios will happen naturally. Therefore, the explanation is that the sampled negative class is not a good representative of its true occupied regions, meaning some regions are not sampled well, and/or classifier is finding bad decision boundaries. Here is a visual illustration (drawn by myself):



    enter image description here



    In the case of good training set, predictions resemble the real-world ratio (2:1), even though model is trained on a balanced set (1:1). In the case of bad training set and/or bad decision boundary, predictions are completely incompatible (1:2) with the real-world ratio (2:1).




    What should I do to solve it?





    1. If the problem is related to bad negative representatives



      1. Use more negative samples in the training set, i.e. imbalanced training (you can nullify the effect of imbalanced samples with class weights), or


      2. Train with balanced classes but change the decision threshold (a post-training solution). That is, instead of assigning instances with output > 0.5 to positive class, use a harder-to-pass threshold like output > 0.8 to decrease the number of positive predictions.



    2. If the problem is related to classifier performance, we should come up with a better classifier which is an open-ended endeavor.


    However, in my opinion, you should not select models based on the ratio of positive predictions. You should decide based on a metric like macro-f1 (or any other one). Therefore, by using a validation set, a model that produces more positive samples and has a higher macro-f1 should be preferred over a model that produces less positives but has a lower macro-f1.






    share|improve this answer











    $endgroup$




    What can be the reason of such behavior?




    A classifier only tries to capture the features-label relationship as accurate as it can, it does not learn nor does it guarantee that the ratio of predicted labels to be close to the true ratio. However, if sampled classes (even balanced) are good representatives of true class regions and classifier finds good decision boundaries, the closeness of ratios will happen naturally. Therefore, the explanation is that the sampled negative class is not a good representative of its true occupied regions, meaning some regions are not sampled well, and/or classifier is finding bad decision boundaries. Here is a visual illustration (drawn by myself):



    enter image description here



    In the case of good training set, predictions resemble the real-world ratio (2:1), even though model is trained on a balanced set (1:1). In the case of bad training set and/or bad decision boundary, predictions are completely incompatible (1:2) with the real-world ratio (2:1).




    What should I do to solve it?





    1. If the problem is related to bad negative representatives



      1. Use more negative samples in the training set, i.e. imbalanced training (you can nullify the effect of imbalanced samples with class weights), or


      2. Train with balanced classes but change the decision threshold (a post-training solution). That is, instead of assigning instances with output > 0.5 to positive class, use a harder-to-pass threshold like output > 0.8 to decrease the number of positive predictions.



    2. If the problem is related to classifier performance, we should come up with a better classifier which is an open-ended endeavor.


    However, in my opinion, you should not select models based on the ratio of positive predictions. You should decide based on a metric like macro-f1 (or any other one). Therefore, by using a validation set, a model that produces more positive samples and has a higher macro-f1 should be preferred over a model that produces less positives but has a lower macro-f1.







    share|improve this answer














    share|improve this answer



    share|improve this answer








    edited 19 hours ago

























    answered yesterday









    EsmailianEsmailian

    2,805318




    2,805318







    • 2




      $begingroup$
      I like that illustration! Source?
      $endgroup$
      – Ben Reiniger
      yesterday






    • 1




      $begingroup$
      @BenReiniger Thanks Ben! I drew it by paint.
      $endgroup$
      – Esmailian
      yesterday










    • $begingroup$
      @Esmailian, I would like to say that this is something that applies to many of your illustrations. They look like something out of a write-up in a blog. You are a natural teacher :)
      $endgroup$
      – Simon Larsson
      19 hours ago










    • $begingroup$
      Thanks, that is really helpful!
      $endgroup$
      – Bien
      19 hours ago










    • $begingroup$
      @SimonLarsson Thanks man!
      $endgroup$
      – Esmailian
      19 hours ago












    • 2




      $begingroup$
      I like that illustration! Source?
      $endgroup$
      – Ben Reiniger
      yesterday






    • 1




      $begingroup$
      @BenReiniger Thanks Ben! I drew it by paint.
      $endgroup$
      – Esmailian
      yesterday










    • $begingroup$
      @Esmailian, I would like to say that this is something that applies to many of your illustrations. They look like something out of a write-up in a blog. You are a natural teacher :)
      $endgroup$
      – Simon Larsson
      19 hours ago










    • $begingroup$
      Thanks, that is really helpful!
      $endgroup$
      – Bien
      19 hours ago










    • $begingroup$
      @SimonLarsson Thanks man!
      $endgroup$
      – Esmailian
      19 hours ago







    2




    2




    $begingroup$
    I like that illustration! Source?
    $endgroup$
    – Ben Reiniger
    yesterday




    $begingroup$
    I like that illustration! Source?
    $endgroup$
    – Ben Reiniger
    yesterday




    1




    1




    $begingroup$
    @BenReiniger Thanks Ben! I drew it by paint.
    $endgroup$
    – Esmailian
    yesterday




    $begingroup$
    @BenReiniger Thanks Ben! I drew it by paint.
    $endgroup$
    – Esmailian
    yesterday












    $begingroup$
    @Esmailian, I would like to say that this is something that applies to many of your illustrations. They look like something out of a write-up in a blog. You are a natural teacher :)
    $endgroup$
    – Simon Larsson
    19 hours ago




    $begingroup$
    @Esmailian, I would like to say that this is something that applies to many of your illustrations. They look like something out of a write-up in a blog. You are a natural teacher :)
    $endgroup$
    – Simon Larsson
    19 hours ago












    $begingroup$
    Thanks, that is really helpful!
    $endgroup$
    – Bien
    19 hours ago




    $begingroup$
    Thanks, that is really helpful!
    $endgroup$
    – Bien
    19 hours ago












    $begingroup$
    @SimonLarsson Thanks man!
    $endgroup$
    – Esmailian
    19 hours ago




    $begingroup$
    @SimonLarsson Thanks man!
    $endgroup$
    – Esmailian
    19 hours ago











    0












    $begingroup$

    Esmailian's answer is great, another possible solution is intercept correction, it is more commonly used in logistic regression, but the principal will apply here as well,
    see here or here, there's a lot of material on it online...






    share|improve this answer








    New contributor




    Oren Matar is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
    Check out our Code of Conduct.






    $endgroup$

















      0












      $begingroup$

      Esmailian's answer is great, another possible solution is intercept correction, it is more commonly used in logistic regression, but the principal will apply here as well,
      see here or here, there's a lot of material on it online...






      share|improve this answer








      New contributor




      Oren Matar is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
      Check out our Code of Conduct.






      $endgroup$















        0












        0








        0





        $begingroup$

        Esmailian's answer is great, another possible solution is intercept correction, it is more commonly used in logistic regression, but the principal will apply here as well,
        see here or here, there's a lot of material on it online...






        share|improve this answer








        New contributor




        Oren Matar is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
        Check out our Code of Conduct.






        $endgroup$



        Esmailian's answer is great, another possible solution is intercept correction, it is more commonly used in logistic regression, but the principal will apply here as well,
        see here or here, there's a lot of material on it online...







        share|improve this answer








        New contributor




        Oren Matar is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
        Check out our Code of Conduct.









        share|improve this answer



        share|improve this answer






        New contributor




        Oren Matar is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
        Check out our Code of Conduct.









        answered 15 hours ago









        Oren MatarOren Matar

        111




        111




        New contributor




        Oren Matar is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
        Check out our Code of Conduct.





        New contributor





        Oren Matar is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
        Check out our Code of Conduct.






        Oren Matar is a new contributor to this site. Take care in asking for clarification, commenting, and answering.
        Check out our Code of Conduct.




















            Bien is a new contributor. Be nice, and check out our Code of Conduct.









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