Bayes factor vs P value Unicorn Meta Zoo #1: Why another podcast? Announcing the arrival of Valued Associate #679: Cesar ManaraWhen should I be worried about the Jeffreys-Lindley paradox in Bayesian model choice?Bayesian analysis and Lindley's paradox?Do Bayes factors require multiple comparison correction?When does it make sense to reject/accept an hypothesis?Why are 0.05 < p < 0.95 results called false positives?Marginal Likelihoods for Bayes Factors with Multiple Discrete HypothesisIs p-value essentially useless and dangerous to use?Are smaller p-values more convincing?Interpreting Granger Causality F-testBayes factor (B) vs p-values: sensitive (H0/H1) vs insensitive dataWald test and LRT arriving at different conclusionsCompute Bayesian Probability

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Bayes factor vs P value



Unicorn Meta Zoo #1: Why another podcast?
Announcing the arrival of Valued Associate #679: Cesar ManaraWhen should I be worried about the Jeffreys-Lindley paradox in Bayesian model choice?Bayesian analysis and Lindley's paradox?Do Bayes factors require multiple comparison correction?When does it make sense to reject/accept an hypothesis?Why are 0.05 < p < 0.95 results called false positives?Marginal Likelihoods for Bayes Factors with Multiple Discrete HypothesisIs p-value essentially useless and dangerous to use?Are smaller p-values more convincing?Interpreting Granger Causality F-testBayes factor (B) vs p-values: sensitive (H0/H1) vs insensitive dataWald test and LRT arriving at different conclusionsCompute Bayesian Probability



.everyoneloves__top-leaderboard:empty,.everyoneloves__mid-leaderboard:empty,.everyoneloves__bot-mid-leaderboard:empty margin-bottom:0;








3












$begingroup$


I am trying to understand Bayes Factor (BF). I believe they are like likelihood ratio of 2 hypotheses. So if BF is 5, it means H1 is 5 times more likely than H0. And value of 3-10 indicates moderate evidence, while >10 indicates strong evidence.



However, for P-value, traditionally 0.05 is taken as cut-off. At this P value, H1/H0 likelihood should be 95/5 or 19.



So why a cut-off of >3 is taken for BF while a cut-off of >19 is taken for P values? These values are not anywhere close either.



I may be missing something very basic since I am a beginner in this area.










share|cite|improve this question











$endgroup$


















    3












    $begingroup$


    I am trying to understand Bayes Factor (BF). I believe they are like likelihood ratio of 2 hypotheses. So if BF is 5, it means H1 is 5 times more likely than H0. And value of 3-10 indicates moderate evidence, while >10 indicates strong evidence.



    However, for P-value, traditionally 0.05 is taken as cut-off. At this P value, H1/H0 likelihood should be 95/5 or 19.



    So why a cut-off of >3 is taken for BF while a cut-off of >19 is taken for P values? These values are not anywhere close either.



    I may be missing something very basic since I am a beginner in this area.










    share|cite|improve this question











    $endgroup$














      3












      3








      3





      $begingroup$


      I am trying to understand Bayes Factor (BF). I believe they are like likelihood ratio of 2 hypotheses. So if BF is 5, it means H1 is 5 times more likely than H0. And value of 3-10 indicates moderate evidence, while >10 indicates strong evidence.



      However, for P-value, traditionally 0.05 is taken as cut-off. At this P value, H1/H0 likelihood should be 95/5 or 19.



      So why a cut-off of >3 is taken for BF while a cut-off of >19 is taken for P values? These values are not anywhere close either.



      I may be missing something very basic since I am a beginner in this area.










      share|cite|improve this question











      $endgroup$




      I am trying to understand Bayes Factor (BF). I believe they are like likelihood ratio of 2 hypotheses. So if BF is 5, it means H1 is 5 times more likely than H0. And value of 3-10 indicates moderate evidence, while >10 indicates strong evidence.



      However, for P-value, traditionally 0.05 is taken as cut-off. At this P value, H1/H0 likelihood should be 95/5 or 19.



      So why a cut-off of >3 is taken for BF while a cut-off of >19 is taken for P values? These values are not anywhere close either.



      I may be missing something very basic since I am a beginner in this area.







      hypothesis-testing bayesian p-value






      share|cite|improve this question















      share|cite|improve this question













      share|cite|improve this question




      share|cite|improve this question








      edited 2 hours ago







      rnso

















      asked 3 hours ago









      rnsornso

      4,067103168




      4,067103168




















          2 Answers
          2






          active

          oldest

          votes


















          3












          $begingroup$

          A few things:



          The BF gives you evidence in favor of a hypothesis, while a frequentist hypothesis test gives you evidence against a (null) hypothesis. So it's kind of "apples to oranges."



          These two procedures, despite the difference in interpretations, may lead to different decisions. For example, a BF might reject while a frequentist hypothesis test doesn't, or vice versa. This problem is often referred to as the Jeffreys-Lindley's paradox. There have been many posts on this site about this; see e.g. here, and here.



          "At this P value, H1/H0 likelihood should be 95/5 or 19." No, this isn't true because, roughly $p(y mid H_1) neq 1- p(y mid H_0)$. Computing a p-value and performing a frequentist test, at a minimum, does not require you to have any idea about $p(y mid H_1)$. Also, p-values are often integrals/sums of densities/pmfs, while a BF doesn't integrate over the data sample space.






          share|cite|improve this answer











          $endgroup$












          • $begingroup$
            Thanks for your insight. However, if evidence in favor of a hypothesis is apple, I think evidence for alternate hypothesis can be inverted apple but not orange! Also, what would you say is approximate Bayes Factor value corresponding to P=0.05?
            $endgroup$
            – rnso
            1 hour ago



















          0












          $begingroup$

          The Bayes factor $B_01$ can be turned into a probability under equal weights as
          $$P_01=frac11+frac1large B_01$$but this does not make them comparable with a $p$-value since




          1. $P_01$ is a probability in the parameter space, not in the sampling space

          2. its value and range depend on the choice of the prior measure, they are thus relative rather than absolute

          3. both $B_01$ and $P_01$ contain a penalty for complexity (Occam's razor) by integrating out over the parameter space

          If you wish to consider a Bayesian equivalent to the $p$-value, the posterior predictive $p$-value (Meng, 1994) should be investigated
          $$Q_01=mathbb P(B_01(X)le B_01(x^textobs))$$
          where $x^textobs$ denotes the observation and $X$ is distributed from the posterior predictive
          $$Xsim int_Theta f(x|theta) pi(theta|x^textobs),textdtheta$$
          but this does not imply that the same "default" criteria for rejection and significance should apply to this object.






          share|cite|improve this answer









          $endgroup$













            Your Answer








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            2 Answers
            2






            active

            oldest

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            2 Answers
            2






            active

            oldest

            votes









            active

            oldest

            votes






            active

            oldest

            votes









            3












            $begingroup$

            A few things:



            The BF gives you evidence in favor of a hypothesis, while a frequentist hypothesis test gives you evidence against a (null) hypothesis. So it's kind of "apples to oranges."



            These two procedures, despite the difference in interpretations, may lead to different decisions. For example, a BF might reject while a frequentist hypothesis test doesn't, or vice versa. This problem is often referred to as the Jeffreys-Lindley's paradox. There have been many posts on this site about this; see e.g. here, and here.



            "At this P value, H1/H0 likelihood should be 95/5 or 19." No, this isn't true because, roughly $p(y mid H_1) neq 1- p(y mid H_0)$. Computing a p-value and performing a frequentist test, at a minimum, does not require you to have any idea about $p(y mid H_1)$. Also, p-values are often integrals/sums of densities/pmfs, while a BF doesn't integrate over the data sample space.






            share|cite|improve this answer











            $endgroup$












            • $begingroup$
              Thanks for your insight. However, if evidence in favor of a hypothesis is apple, I think evidence for alternate hypothesis can be inverted apple but not orange! Also, what would you say is approximate Bayes Factor value corresponding to P=0.05?
              $endgroup$
              – rnso
              1 hour ago
















            3












            $begingroup$

            A few things:



            The BF gives you evidence in favor of a hypothesis, while a frequentist hypothesis test gives you evidence against a (null) hypothesis. So it's kind of "apples to oranges."



            These two procedures, despite the difference in interpretations, may lead to different decisions. For example, a BF might reject while a frequentist hypothesis test doesn't, or vice versa. This problem is often referred to as the Jeffreys-Lindley's paradox. There have been many posts on this site about this; see e.g. here, and here.



            "At this P value, H1/H0 likelihood should be 95/5 or 19." No, this isn't true because, roughly $p(y mid H_1) neq 1- p(y mid H_0)$. Computing a p-value and performing a frequentist test, at a minimum, does not require you to have any idea about $p(y mid H_1)$. Also, p-values are often integrals/sums of densities/pmfs, while a BF doesn't integrate over the data sample space.






            share|cite|improve this answer











            $endgroup$












            • $begingroup$
              Thanks for your insight. However, if evidence in favor of a hypothesis is apple, I think evidence for alternate hypothesis can be inverted apple but not orange! Also, what would you say is approximate Bayes Factor value corresponding to P=0.05?
              $endgroup$
              – rnso
              1 hour ago














            3












            3








            3





            $begingroup$

            A few things:



            The BF gives you evidence in favor of a hypothesis, while a frequentist hypothesis test gives you evidence against a (null) hypothesis. So it's kind of "apples to oranges."



            These two procedures, despite the difference in interpretations, may lead to different decisions. For example, a BF might reject while a frequentist hypothesis test doesn't, or vice versa. This problem is often referred to as the Jeffreys-Lindley's paradox. There have been many posts on this site about this; see e.g. here, and here.



            "At this P value, H1/H0 likelihood should be 95/5 or 19." No, this isn't true because, roughly $p(y mid H_1) neq 1- p(y mid H_0)$. Computing a p-value and performing a frequentist test, at a minimum, does not require you to have any idea about $p(y mid H_1)$. Also, p-values are often integrals/sums of densities/pmfs, while a BF doesn't integrate over the data sample space.






            share|cite|improve this answer











            $endgroup$



            A few things:



            The BF gives you evidence in favor of a hypothesis, while a frequentist hypothesis test gives you evidence against a (null) hypothesis. So it's kind of "apples to oranges."



            These two procedures, despite the difference in interpretations, may lead to different decisions. For example, a BF might reject while a frequentist hypothesis test doesn't, or vice versa. This problem is often referred to as the Jeffreys-Lindley's paradox. There have been many posts on this site about this; see e.g. here, and here.



            "At this P value, H1/H0 likelihood should be 95/5 or 19." No, this isn't true because, roughly $p(y mid H_1) neq 1- p(y mid H_0)$. Computing a p-value and performing a frequentist test, at a minimum, does not require you to have any idea about $p(y mid H_1)$. Also, p-values are often integrals/sums of densities/pmfs, while a BF doesn't integrate over the data sample space.







            share|cite|improve this answer














            share|cite|improve this answer



            share|cite|improve this answer








            edited 21 mins ago









            Xi'an

            59.8k897369




            59.8k897369










            answered 2 hours ago









            TaylorTaylor

            12.7k21946




            12.7k21946











            • $begingroup$
              Thanks for your insight. However, if evidence in favor of a hypothesis is apple, I think evidence for alternate hypothesis can be inverted apple but not orange! Also, what would you say is approximate Bayes Factor value corresponding to P=0.05?
              $endgroup$
              – rnso
              1 hour ago

















            • $begingroup$
              Thanks for your insight. However, if evidence in favor of a hypothesis is apple, I think evidence for alternate hypothesis can be inverted apple but not orange! Also, what would you say is approximate Bayes Factor value corresponding to P=0.05?
              $endgroup$
              – rnso
              1 hour ago
















            $begingroup$
            Thanks for your insight. However, if evidence in favor of a hypothesis is apple, I think evidence for alternate hypothesis can be inverted apple but not orange! Also, what would you say is approximate Bayes Factor value corresponding to P=0.05?
            $endgroup$
            – rnso
            1 hour ago





            $begingroup$
            Thanks for your insight. However, if evidence in favor of a hypothesis is apple, I think evidence for alternate hypothesis can be inverted apple but not orange! Also, what would you say is approximate Bayes Factor value corresponding to P=0.05?
            $endgroup$
            – rnso
            1 hour ago














            0












            $begingroup$

            The Bayes factor $B_01$ can be turned into a probability under equal weights as
            $$P_01=frac11+frac1large B_01$$but this does not make them comparable with a $p$-value since




            1. $P_01$ is a probability in the parameter space, not in the sampling space

            2. its value and range depend on the choice of the prior measure, they are thus relative rather than absolute

            3. both $B_01$ and $P_01$ contain a penalty for complexity (Occam's razor) by integrating out over the parameter space

            If you wish to consider a Bayesian equivalent to the $p$-value, the posterior predictive $p$-value (Meng, 1994) should be investigated
            $$Q_01=mathbb P(B_01(X)le B_01(x^textobs))$$
            where $x^textobs$ denotes the observation and $X$ is distributed from the posterior predictive
            $$Xsim int_Theta f(x|theta) pi(theta|x^textobs),textdtheta$$
            but this does not imply that the same "default" criteria for rejection and significance should apply to this object.






            share|cite|improve this answer









            $endgroup$

















              0












              $begingroup$

              The Bayes factor $B_01$ can be turned into a probability under equal weights as
              $$P_01=frac11+frac1large B_01$$but this does not make them comparable with a $p$-value since




              1. $P_01$ is a probability in the parameter space, not in the sampling space

              2. its value and range depend on the choice of the prior measure, they are thus relative rather than absolute

              3. both $B_01$ and $P_01$ contain a penalty for complexity (Occam's razor) by integrating out over the parameter space

              If you wish to consider a Bayesian equivalent to the $p$-value, the posterior predictive $p$-value (Meng, 1994) should be investigated
              $$Q_01=mathbb P(B_01(X)le B_01(x^textobs))$$
              where $x^textobs$ denotes the observation and $X$ is distributed from the posterior predictive
              $$Xsim int_Theta f(x|theta) pi(theta|x^textobs),textdtheta$$
              but this does not imply that the same "default" criteria for rejection and significance should apply to this object.






              share|cite|improve this answer









              $endgroup$















                0












                0








                0





                $begingroup$

                The Bayes factor $B_01$ can be turned into a probability under equal weights as
                $$P_01=frac11+frac1large B_01$$but this does not make them comparable with a $p$-value since




                1. $P_01$ is a probability in the parameter space, not in the sampling space

                2. its value and range depend on the choice of the prior measure, they are thus relative rather than absolute

                3. both $B_01$ and $P_01$ contain a penalty for complexity (Occam's razor) by integrating out over the parameter space

                If you wish to consider a Bayesian equivalent to the $p$-value, the posterior predictive $p$-value (Meng, 1994) should be investigated
                $$Q_01=mathbb P(B_01(X)le B_01(x^textobs))$$
                where $x^textobs$ denotes the observation and $X$ is distributed from the posterior predictive
                $$Xsim int_Theta f(x|theta) pi(theta|x^textobs),textdtheta$$
                but this does not imply that the same "default" criteria for rejection and significance should apply to this object.






                share|cite|improve this answer









                $endgroup$



                The Bayes factor $B_01$ can be turned into a probability under equal weights as
                $$P_01=frac11+frac1large B_01$$but this does not make them comparable with a $p$-value since




                1. $P_01$ is a probability in the parameter space, not in the sampling space

                2. its value and range depend on the choice of the prior measure, they are thus relative rather than absolute

                3. both $B_01$ and $P_01$ contain a penalty for complexity (Occam's razor) by integrating out over the parameter space

                If you wish to consider a Bayesian equivalent to the $p$-value, the posterior predictive $p$-value (Meng, 1994) should be investigated
                $$Q_01=mathbb P(B_01(X)le B_01(x^textobs))$$
                where $x^textobs$ denotes the observation and $X$ is distributed from the posterior predictive
                $$Xsim int_Theta f(x|theta) pi(theta|x^textobs),textdtheta$$
                but this does not imply that the same "default" criteria for rejection and significance should apply to this object.







                share|cite|improve this answer












                share|cite|improve this answer



                share|cite|improve this answer










                answered 10 mins ago









                Xi'anXi'an

                59.8k897369




                59.8k897369



























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                    Беларусь Змест Назва Гісторыя Геаграфія Сімволіка Дзяржаўны лад Палітычныя партыі Міжнароднае становішча і знешняя палітыка Адміністрацыйны падзел Насельніцтва Эканоміка Культура і грамадства Сацыяльная сфера Узброеныя сілы Заўвагі Літаратура Спасылкі НавігацыяHGЯOiТоп-2011 г. (па версіі ej.by)Топ-2013 г. (па версіі ej.by)Топ-2016 г. (па версіі ej.by)Топ-2017 г. (па версіі ej.by)Нацыянальны статыстычны камітэт Рэспублікі БеларусьШчыльнасць насельніцтва па краінахhttp://naviny.by/rubrics/society/2011/09/16/ic_articles_116_175144/А. Калечыц, У. Ксяндзоў. Спробы засялення краю неандэртальскім чалавекам.І ў Менску былі мамантыА. Калечыц, У. Ксяндзоў. Старажытны каменны век (палеаліт). Першапачатковае засяленне тэрыторыіГ. Штыхаў. Балты і славяне ў VI—VIII стст.М. Клімаў. Полацкае княства ў IX—XI стст.Г. Штыхаў, В. Ляўко. Палітычная гісторыя Полацкай зямліГ. Штыхаў. Дзяржаўны лад у землях-княствахГ. Штыхаў. Дзяржаўны лад у землях-княствахБеларускія землі ў складзе Вялікага Княства ЛітоўскагаЛюблінская унія 1569 г."The Early Stages of Independence"Zapomniane prawdy25 гадоў таму было аб'яўлена, што Язэп Пілсудскі — беларус (фота)Наша вадаДакументы ЧАЭС: Забруджванне тэрыторыі Беларусі « ЧАЭС Зона адчужэнняСведения о политических партиях, зарегистрированных в Республике Беларусь // Министерство юстиции Республики БеларусьСтатыстычны бюлетэнь „Полаўзроставая структура насельніцтва Рэспублікі Беларусь на 1 студзеня 2012 года і сярэднегадовая колькасць насельніцтва за 2011 год“Индекс человеческого развития Беларуси — не было бы нижеБеларусь занимает первое место в СНГ по индексу развития с учетом гендерного факцёраНацыянальны статыстычны камітэт Рэспублікі БеларусьКанстытуцыя РБ. Артыкул 17Трансфармацыйныя задачы БеларусіВыйсце з крызісу — далейшае рэфармаванне Беларускі рубель — сусветны лідар па дэвальвацыяхПра змену коштаў у кастрычніку 2011 г.Бядней за беларусаў у СНД толькі таджыкіСярэдні заробак у верасні дасягнуў 2,26 мільёна рублёўЭканомікаГаласуем за ТОП-100 беларускай прозыСучасныя беларускія мастакіАрхитектура Беларуси BELARUS.BYА. Каханоўскі. Культура Беларусі ўсярэдзіне XVII—XVIII ст.Анталогія беларускай народнай песні, гуказапісы спеваўБеларускія Музычныя IнструментыБеларускі рок, які мы страцілі. Топ-10 гуртоў«Мясцовы час» — нязгаслая легенда беларускай рок-музыкіСЯРГЕЙ БУДКІН. МЫ НЯ ЗНАЕМ СВАЁЙ МУЗЫКІМ. А. Каладзінскі. НАРОДНЫ ТЭАТРМагнацкія культурныя цэнтрыПублічная дыскусія «Беларуская новая пьеса: без беларускай мовы ці беларуская?»Беларускія драматургі па-ранейшаму лепш ставяцца за мяжой, чым на радзіме«Працэс незалежнага кіно пайшоў, і дзяржаву турбуе яго непадкантрольнасць»Беларускія філосафы ў пошуках прасторыВсе идём в библиотекуАрхіваванаАб Нацыянальнай праграме даследавання і выкарыстання касмічнай прасторы ў мірных мэтах на 2008—2012 гадыУ космас — разам.У суседнім з Барысаўскім раёне пабудуюць Камандна-вымяральны пунктСвяты і абрады беларусаў«Мірныя бульбашы з малой краіны» — 5 непраўдзівых стэрэатыпаў пра БеларусьМ. Раманюк. Беларускае народнае адзеннеУ Беларусі скарачаецца колькасць злачынстваўЛукашэнка незадаволены мінскімі ўладамі Крадзяжы складаюць у Мінску каля 70% злачынстваў Узровень злачыннасці ў Мінскай вобласці — адзін з самых высокіх у краіне Генпракуратура аналізуе стан са злачыннасцю ў Беларусі па каэфіцыенце злачыннасці У Беларусі стабілізавалася крымінагеннае становішча, лічыць генпракурорЗамежнікі сталі здзяйсняць у Беларусі больш злачынстваўМУС Беларусі турбуе рост рэцыдыўнай злачыннасціЯ з ЖЭСа. Дазволіце вас абкрасці! Рэйтынг усіх службаў і падраздзяленняў ГУУС Мінгарвыканкама вырасАб КДБ РБГісторыя Аператыўна-аналітычнага цэнтра РБГісторыя ДКФРТаможняagentura.ruБеларусьBelarus.by — Афіцыйны сайт Рэспублікі БеларусьСайт урада БеларусіRadzima.org — Збор архітэктурных помнікаў, гісторыя Беларусі«Глобус Беларуси»Гербы и флаги БеларусиАсаблівасці каменнага веку на БеларусіА. Калечыц, У. Ксяндзоў. Старажытны каменны век (палеаліт). Першапачатковае засяленне тэрыторыіУ. Ксяндзоў. Сярэдні каменны век (мезаліт). Засяленне краю плямёнамі паляўнічых, рыбакоў і збіральнікаўА. Калечыц, М. Чарняўскі. Плямёны на тэрыторыі Беларусі ў новым каменным веку (неаліце)А. Калечыц, У. Ксяндзоў, М. Чарняўскі. Гаспадарчыя заняткі ў каменным векуЭ. Зайкоўскі. Духоўная культура ў каменным векуАсаблівасці бронзавага веку на БеларусіФарміраванне супольнасцей ранняга перыяду бронзавага векуФотографии БеларусиРоля беларускіх зямель ва ўтварэнні і ўмацаванні ВКЛВ. Фадзеева. З гісторыі развіцця беларускай народнай вышыўкіDMOZGran catalanaБольшая российскаяBritannica (анлайн)Швейцарскі гістарычны15325917611952699xDA123282154079143-90000 0001 2171 2080n9112870100577502ge128882171858027501086026362074122714179пппппп